Why theS&P moved.

The Chip stocks path carries the most weight in the indexes’ recent pinned moves (strength 28). The path last fired on 30 Jul: Microsoft results, Nasdaq +8.8%.

The chains into the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq the graph holds active now, ranked by how much of the recent moves ran through them.

Oil price last fired on 4 Aug (+3.3%); since 30 Jul, Chip stocks leads.

Computed from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pins and FRED closes. Strength: share of the year’s pinned moves, weighted to the recent.

The S&P 500’s 1.9% fall in the week to 16 Oct: yields, the dollar, oil and the VIX explain 0.7 points of it. The other 1.3 is the residual, 66% of the move.

The S&P 500's week split into the 10-year yield, the dollar, oil, the VIX and what is left.

The weekly residual turned positive on 25 Sept (+0.8), then gave it back: −1.6 in the week to 16 Oct.

Computed: a year of weekly moves regressed on FRED DGS10, the dollar index, Brent and FRED VIXCLS; residual = the rest.

A rise in the 10-year hits the S&P 500 harder since 29 May: their 60-day correlation went from −0.26 to −0.70 (nearest pin: May jobs report, 5 Jun). It is −0.45 now.

The S&P 500's rolling 60-day correlation with the 10-year, the dollar, oil, gold and the VIX, each break dated with its reason.

Break on 29 May; before it the index tracked the 10-year at −0.26. Now −0.45.

Computed from daily moves: FRED SP500 against DGS10, the dollar index, Brent, COMEX gold and the VIX.

The US economy is in Quad 3 as of Q2 2026, the S&P 500’s worst quad: since 2006 it has averaged −1.3% a quarter there, up in 13 of 27.

US growth and inflation, each speeding up or slowing, as four quadrants, with what the S&P 500 has done in each since 2006.

Quad 1 → 3 in Q2 2026: GDP growth −0.45 pp, CPI inflation +1.10 pp on the quarter before.

Computed: FRED GDPC1 and CPIAUCSL, year-on-year growth and its change each quarter; S&P 500 quarterly returns since 2006.

The S&P 500 closed lower on 8 of the last 10 FOMC hold days (median −0.08%). The next decision is on 28 Oct.

What the S&P 500 did on each FOMC day and the five sessions after, split by the decision, with the next one dated.

Last decision, 16 Sept (hike): the index −0.4% on the day, +2.4% over five sessions.

FOMC moves computed from FRED SP500 and the Fed’s statements, from the close before the decision. The split is by decision: consensus is not in the data.

Asset managers’ net long in S&P 500 futures is at the 33rd percentile of the past year, leveraged funds’ at the 42nd: not crowded.

Who holds S&P 500 futures and how crowded the index is: asset managers, leveraged funds and the VIX, on one gauge.

Asset managers added 1.2% net in four weeks, to 915,835 contracts on 13 Oct.

Computed: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (E-mini S&P 500), weekly, and FRED VIXCLS (a calm VIX reads as crowded).

The S&P 500's −1.1% on 16 Oct was a 1.4σ day against the past year. 17 falls that size this year; five sessions later the S&P 500 was up after 11 of 16 (median +0.8%).

The latest close's move in standard deviations of the past year, and what the S&P 500 did five sessions after every move as large this year.

A day's standard deviation over the past year: 0.80%. The largest fall this year: 5 Jun (−2.6%).

Computed from FRED SP500 daily closes: the trailing year's daily moves and this year's analogs.

The S&P 500 is 2.0% below its 6 Oct high, 8 sessions in. Since 2006, 50 drawdowns as deep took a median 24 sessions to recover (2 to 1368).

How far the S&P 500 is below its high of the past year, and how long every drawdown as deep since 2006 took to recover.

The high was on 6 Oct; no pinned fall since.

Computed from daily closes since 2006 (Yahoo Finance · ^GSPC): drawdowns from the trailing year's high that reached today's depth.

The S&P 500 leads the 10-year Treasury yield by 1 session: the 10-year Treasury yield's moves correlate +0.21 with the S&P 500's 1 session earlier over the past 120 days, the strongest lead in the pairs tracked.

Which driver or market moves first and the S&P 500 follows, by how many sessions, over the past 120: correlation at lags of one to five days.

That lead's sign last flipped on 4 Feb; read it as a regime, not a rule.

Computed from daily moves over the trailing 120 sessions (FRED, ICE dollar index, ECB, Yahoo Finance); a correlation, not a cause.

In Quad 3 quarters, the S&P 500's October has averaged +2.1%, against +0.9% across every October since 2006 (5 of 22 years in the quad).

The S&P 500's average month in quarters of the current macro quad, against every year since 2006.

In Quad 3, the best month has been October (+2.1%), the worst September (−5.9%).

Computed from month-end closes since 2006 (Yahoo Finance · ^GSPC) and the quad from FRED GDP and CPI. Small samples: a month in a quad is a handful of years.